Last month, a football analytics article took the Boston Sports Media by storm… in July. I was personally caught off guard, as I was still focused on NBA and NHL free agency, and immersed in the heart of baseball season, but the NFL has a way of dominating the local and national sports culture at will.
The article, by Cian Fahey of presnapreads.com, was about the challenges aging quarterbacks face, highlighted by Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, and Eli Manning, and provided detailed breakdowns of their performances in 2016.
The parts about Brady were the highlight of the discussion on Boston radio, of course. Over the course of a week, I heard at least three different pronunciations of Fahey’s first name as hosts and callers reacted to Fahey’s analysis. Brady has won five Super Bowls and played in seven, and just came off the best age 39 season by a quarterback in NFL history. The article was presented as a hot take, that Brady might already be in decline, and Patriots fans have heard people in the national media proclaiming Brady’s decline for nearly a decade now. It still has not happened.
Tom Brady turns 40 today (and I encourage everyone to read the stories Mike Reiss of ESPN compiled to celebrate the milestone), but, without sounding like too much of a homer, I need to see Brady decline before I believe he is actually declining at this point. I have counted him out personally too many times, and I have scoffed at too many pundits and analysts who counted him out even if deep down I had my doubts–with Super Bowl LI being the most obvious and recent example–to go down that road before Bill Belichick starts Jimmy Garoppolo over a healthy Brady in a meaningful game.
The point about arm strength is a fair concern, and missing the first four games of the season had to help him hold up, as outraged about the Deflategate nightmare as Patriots fans were. But arm strength is less of a concern for Brady than a lot of other quarterbacks because of the way he plays and the way Josh McDaniels orchestrates the New England offense to play to Brady’s strengths. He doesn’t rely on the deep ball. He’s not the Justin Verlander of QBs. That’s Aaron Rodgers. Brady is Dallas Keuchel. If arm strength were everything, Jay Cutler (who I guess would be Aroldis Chapman if we’re going to keep comparing quarterbacks to pitchers) would still be in the NFL and not in the Fox broadcast booth.
Even if his skills have declined, there are only a handful of teams that could take advantage of this 40 year old superstar. Houston’s defense gave the Patriots fits in the playoffs for sure, but their quarterback was Brock Osweiler. This year, Osweiler is out of the picture and the effectiveness of Tom Savage and rookie Deshaun Watson remains to be seen. Derek Carr and the Exiting Oakland Raiders could make a formidable foe, but their defense was nowhere near Houston’s last year and has a lot of room for improvement. The Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos have historically given Brady trouble, but Denver’s quarterback situation is unproven at best, and the injury to Joe Flacco could leave the Baltimore with more uncertainty than a team that has only made the playoffs once since winning the Super Bowl in 2013 would like.
The Falcons are clearly a team that can hang with the Patriots on both sides of the ball, but they are in the NFC, where the road to the Super Bowl is much tougher year in and year out. Also, given the way they imploded in a game they were so sure they had won that owner Arthur Blank was standing on the sideline preparing to celebrate as he instead watched his team lose, they might be damaged for 2017. The Pats had their share of struggles in the years that followed their 18-1 2008 campaign, and the decision to throw instead of hand off to Marshawn Lynch still haunts the Seattle Seahawks two and a half years later.
The best thing Brady has going for him late in his prime is a league that mostly does not have an answer for him, much like LeBron James in basketball. The only difference is there is no juggernaut on par with the Warriors that are definitively better than Brady’s team. Not only is Brady the greatest QB, but Bill Belichick is the greatest coach, and Rob Gronkowski is the greatest tight end. It’s like if LeBron was on the Warriors. Okay, maybe I am a homer.
My belief in Brady at 40 is as much about the results on the field as the stories Reiss highlighted about his insane level of competitiveness at every stage in his adult life. From pickup basketball games when he was at Michigan to chugging beer at a bar in Rochester to refusing to give an inch to any backup, even if he knew he wasn’t going to start the September games in 2016, Brady is as dialed in now as he was when he was taken 199th by a team that already had a franchise QB. If Jimmy Garoppolo’s entire career as an NFL starter is just those six magnificent quarters last fall, he will go down as one of the greatest draft picks in the Belichick Era because of the level his presence made Brady reach late in his career. Then again, that narrative might not be entirely fair to Brady.
Tom Brady’s career has been a joy to watch. It wasn’t all great, but the struggles in 2009 and 2010 only made what he accomplished these last few seasons even more impressive. At 40 one would think he is nearing the end, but Brady keeps moving the figurative goal posts for himself as efficiently as he moves the literal chains on the field. Take that for data!
This week, after losing the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals to the Cleveland Cavaliers, and with neither of the two games at TD Garden being at all competitive, the Boston Celtics announced that their start point guard, Isaiah Thomas, was out for the season. Then, the Celtics won Game 3 in Cleveland, and without their best player. Naturally, the narrative of “are the Celtics better off without Isaiah?” swirled around the Boston Sports Media for days. It was maybe the dumbest take, but also quite possibly the most predictable take ever.
I get how we got here. This is Boston. There are two radio stations and two TV stations devoted to the local sports teams, and the Celtics are the only one of the four currently in the playoffs. In addition to being a primary talking point for hosts and callers alike on WEEI and The Sports Hub alike, you have writers at The Boston Globe and The Boston Herald, national outlets with Boston roots like Barstool Sports and The Ringer, and probably hundreds of aspiring and trying millennials like me all trying to be read and be heard. On some level, the “better off without” opinion had legs, not because it was valid, not because anyone really believed it, but because the infrastructure of the Boston Sports Media needed it to happen. There were too many hours in the day for no one to say it, so people couldn’t stop saying it.
This is also the market that produced Bill Simmons, author of The Ewing Theory, which attempts to explain the phenomenon where a team loses their superstar who has never won a title, and the complementary pieces surrounding that star step up in their absence, and the team outperforms expectations. It was a theory Simmons first developed with a friend when Patrick Ewing was in college, and they noticed his Georgetown teammates seemed to play better when he was on the bench in foul trouble, and the theory was tested at the professional level when Ewing got hurt in the 1999 NBA Playoffs, and without him, his New York Knicks reached the NBA Finals as the #8 seed in the Eastern Conference. The ultimate Ewing Theory case is that of Drew Bledsoe, whom Simmons mentioned as a possible Ewing Theory candidate in a 2001 column, months before the Patriots’ franchise quarterback was wrecked by Mo Lewis, replaced by a second year QB out of Michigan named Tom Brady, and so began the Pats’ transformation to downtrodden perennial punchline to the model franchise in North American professional sports.
Of course the very existence of the theory causes people to anticipate a case before anything actually happens. The most prominent example of that was also Boston-centric, when Rajon Rondo got hurt in 2013, and the Celtics rallied around the loss and made the playoffs anyway, and it inspired Simmons’ “Ewing Theory Revisited” column. But as fun as a theory like is to think about, the reality is always much more nuanced, a huge reason I have become disillusioned with the sports media culture I am simultaneously trying to break into. Not everything is a hot take, and trying to find the hot take in every story only lowers the common denominator, and brings everybody down. Yes, the Knicks advanced farther in a lower seed after Ewing got hurt, but the 1999 NBA season was strange, compressed, and shortened by a lockout. The Knicks were probably a better team than they were in the regular season, and could have made noise in the power vacuum that was the East after the dismantling of the Chicago Bulls, who had dominated the conference for the bulk of the 1990s. Also, there is no way the Knicks were better off in the Finals without Patrick Ewing, going up against a San Antonio Spurs team that had both Tim Duncan and David Robinson.
Obviously, the Celtics are not better off without Isaiah. The guy was awesome for them this season, was the biggest reason (aside from Toronto’s injuries and Cleveland’s indifference to regular season results) that the Celtics finished atop the East after 82 games, and there is no way they get past the Washington Wizards in the second round (let alone Chicago in the first) without him. The Celtics were on the road, forced to play a different lineup, and caught LeBron James on a rare off night. That’s all it was. One game where the depleted Celtics held LeBron to 11 points and still needed needed a last-second three by Avery Bradley to win. That should not and does not wipe away all the great work Isaiah Thomas did for the Celtics this year.
As idiotic as the narrative was this week, it does serve as a cynical preview for the way things will likely go in Boston with Isaiah Thomas going forward. It took one win on the road in a series the Celtics were never going to win for fans and media to turn on the most beloved player the Celtics have had since Larry Bird. What is going to happen when the Celtics draft another point guard? They have the top pick in the 2017 Draft, and the consensus top two prospects, Markelle Fultz of Washington and Lonzo Ball of UCLA, are both point guards? What happens if they sign Utah Jazz All-Star small forward Gordon Hayward to a max contract this summer? As great as Isaiah has been for the Celtics, next summer, he will be a free agent, and will the Celtics be willing to make a 29 year old point guard who is under six feet and is already showing wear and tear from the beating one takes as a short guy in a big guy’s league one of the highest paid players in the NBA? I have a feeling this will not end well.
It may be a different sport with very different roster sizes and pay structures, but I have a feeling the way the New England Patriots have handled cornerback and Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler this offseason as something of a precursor to what could happen with IT and the Celtics. Butler became an instant household name when he made The Interception of the Century in the end zone against the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX. Last offseason, the most important players on New England’s defense were Chandler Jones, Jamie Collins, Dont’a Hightower, and Butler, and all were set to be free agents at some level this offseason, and the team needed to address that. Jones was traded to the Arizona Cardinals last spring, Collins was traded to the Cleveland Browns in the middle of the season. Hightower signed an extension with the Patriots after the Super Bowl, but Butler’s future remains murky. First it seemed like Butler, a restricted free agent, would get traded to the New Orleans Saints, but the trade never happened. To further complicate things, the Patriots paid big money to free agent corner Stephon Gilmore without ever playing a down for New England, while Butler had established himself as one of the NFL’s best with the Pats, playing a key role on a team that has won two of the last three Super Bowls, but the Patriots hold all the cards, and they may very well make Malcolm wait for the big payday many fans and media members alike feel like he has already earned.
This is a similar situation to Isaiah with the Celtics. Thomas has been the good soldier, and consistently Boston’s best player since he arrived here on a very affordable contract (he is still playing on the four-year, $27 million deal he signed with the Phoenix Suns in 2014), while the team went out and paid Al Horford, tried to pay Kevin Durant, and may very well pay Gordon Hayward, all while being very deep at the point guard and possibly using yet another lottery pick on yet another point guard at next month’s draft. Isaiah made the Celtics respectable after the Nee Big Three left town, and just as he is playing his best basketball, the Celtics may already be figuring out his succession plan.
Both Thomas and Butler had to scratch and claw to become the players they became. While Thomas was the last pick of the 2011 NBA Draft, Butler went undrafted coming out of West Alabama. But Bill Belichick saw something in him, coached him up to be ready for the most pivotal moment of the most important game of the season, and was confident enough in his own coaching and Butler’s development to let Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner walk in free agency, confident that the Patriots’ secondary would be just fine. As much of a success story as Butler has been, Bill Belichick is confident in his ability to find the next Malcolm Butler if things between the player and the team go south, and Danny Ainge, like Belichick, is someone always thinking steps ahead.
Bill Belichick and Danny Ainge could not, as two professional sports executives who have been in Boston over a decade, carry themselves any more differently. Belichick is the gruff, ratty sweatshirt clad football coach who seems to go out of his way to be as terse with the media as possible, while Ainge is the clean-cut former NBA guard and MLB third baseman who regularly gets interviewed on the radio during the season. Ainge plays nice, but at his core, he’s a cold, calculating genius not unlike Belichick. Even when he’s tweeting praises of Isaiah, I have a hard time believing he isn’t weighing options should Isaiah not be in the Celtics’ long-term plans. Ainge built a team whose season lasted longer than any team other than the two teams everyone knew would be in the Finals the minute Durant announced he was going to Golden State last July, he did not have to give anything up at the trade deadline either of the last two years to get that far, and he has the ability to add a potentially franchise-altering player at the top of the draft. Like Belichick with Butler, Danny Ainge holds all the cards.
This turn of events says more about the over-reactionary nature of Boston Sports Media than it does about the future about the Celtics, but as predictable as it all was, it sheds some light on the things to come.
I spent all of the 2013-14 basketball season thinking the Boston Celtics were poised to make a big splash this summer. It was a strange season, the first since 2006-07 that the C’s weren’t a playoff team, let alone a legitimate championship contender, and I thought it wouldn’t be long before they would be back in the mix. Instead, they fell to #6 in the draft lottery, and did not have enough assets to acquire Kevin Love from the Minnesota Timberwolves, who was traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers this week in exchange for 2014 #1 overall pick Andrew Wiggins and 2013 #1 overall pick Anthony Bennett. It might be a while before the Celtics can compete with Cleveland, Chicago, and the best teams of the West again, but it’s not all bad.
There were no fireworks this summer in the way that Celtics owner Wyc Grousbeck had hoped for during the season, but there were quite a few mildly exciting things that happened for the team. First off, the Celtics unveiled a new alternate logo, pictured in the top left corner of this article.
The green and white reminds me of the older version of the leprechaun logo that the Celtics used in the Larry Bird Era, and isn’t as busy as the newer one that debuted around the same time the team hired Rick Pitino in the mid-90s. Here are the two logos side by side:
The new logo is a sleeker, cleaner take on the classic Lucky the Leprechaun design that was first drawn up by Red Auerbach’s brother. It looks
a little a lot cartoonish, and I’m thinking of referring to it as the “Bugs Bunny Celtics Logo” in future blog posts, but many of the best logos in sports are shamelessly cartoonish. That’s another article for another day.
The other big uniform change the Celtics are making this year is that the road green jerseys will now say “BOSTON” instead of “CELTICS” like they did back in the 50s and early 60s.
Again, I’m a big fan of the change. The Celtics have the best uniforms in the NBA in my opinion, and the great thing about that organization is that if they ever want to retool their look, they can just borrow from the past. Many teams in all four sports continue to change their color schemes and completely overhaul their logos, but the Celtics will never need to do that. Their identity is secure.
Another exciting thing to happen off the court for the Celtics this summer was Brian Scalabrine’s homecoming announcement. While the parody of LeBron James’ Sports Illustrated article is funny enough in and of itself, the fact that White Mamba is returning to the Celtics is welcome news. Scal belongs in Boston. Even if he’s just a broadcaster (and filling the shoes of Celtics legend and color commentator Tommy “That is bogus!!!” Heinsohn during road games) for CSSNE, it’s great to see him as part of the Celtics family once again.
Scalabrine was a fan favorite during the New Big Three Era where he carved out a role as the big redheaded guy in the huddle and the last guy on the bench, draining threes in games that Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett had already put away. After the C’s devastating seven game defeat at the hands of the Lakers in 2010, Scal signed with the Chicago Bulls, joining former Celtics assistant coach Tom Thibodeau, who had been hired as Chicago’s new head coach. He played a couple more seasons in the same role he had in Boston, but in a show that starred Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah instead of Pierce, Allen, and KG. This past season, he served as an assistant coach under Mark Jackson for the Golden State Warriors, but was reassigned towards the end of the season. After another early playoff exit, the Warriors fired Jackson and overhauled the basketball operation for the new coach Steve Kerr.
When it became apparent that Scalabrine would be looking for work, and that the Celtics might not be able to accomplish as much as they were hoping this summer, the guys from the Toucher and Rich show on 98.5 The Sports Hub decided to write a song to raise awareness and get Danny Ainge’s attention. Whether that song helped the cause or not, Brian Scalabrine is a Celtic again, and the world is better for it.
As for the changes the Celtics have made on the court, I think they drafted as well as they could with the #6 and #17 picks, acquiring Marcus Smart from Oklahoma State and James Young from Kentucky. They also signed former #2 overall pick Evan Turner, who played for the Philadelphia 76ers and Indiana Pacers last season. Those are three young players who still have plenty of upside. It will be interesting to see who stays in the Celtics’ long term plans among the “gluttony of guards” as Cedric Maxwell called on the night of the NBA Draft. Between Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley (who signed a four year deal this summer to stay in Boston), Smart, Young, Turner, and Phil Pressey, that’s a lot of small talent.
The Celtics still have Kelly Olynyk, Jared Sullinger, Jeff Green, and Brandon Bass coming back for forwards, as well. Sullinger showed us a lot in his second year, after being limited by a season ending back injury and the limited amount of minutes Doc Rivers gave to young players as a rookie. Olynyk had a strong finish to his rookie season, finding a bit of a scoring touch by season’s end, and hopefully he can build upon that in 2014-15. Head coach Brad Stevens has a better roster to work with than he did his first year with the Celtics, and now the questions surrounding the Celtics should be less about draft position and more about playoff position.
The Eastern Conference is not very good. There is a reason the Miami Heat represented the East in the NBA Finals four straight years, and it’s not just because of LeBron James. There are a couple of very good teams. The past couple years, it was the Heat and the Indiana Pacers, but with LeBron’s return to Cleveland, and Indiana’s loss of Lance Stephenson in free agency to the Charlotte Hornets (yes, they’re the Hornets again!) and the loss of Paul George to a devastating injury in a meaningless game, it’ll be different teams this time around, in all likelihood.
The Chicago Bulls look poised to take the East by storm, with a healthy Derrick Rose coming back, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year in the form of Joakim Noah, and the signing of veteran star Pau Gasol. The Washington Wizards, having signed free agent ex-Celtics Kris Humphries and Paul Pierce to go with a pretty good young core headlined by John Wall and Bradley Beal, could be another legit contender from the East, but after that, it’s wide open…especially in the Atlantic Division.
The biggest thing to be excited about with the Celtics is the fact that they play in an absolutely terrible division. Here’s a quick recap of who the C’s are up against for 1st place in the Atlantic and an automatic playoff berth:
The Toronto Raptors finally broke through and made the playoffs last year, but lost to the Brooklyn Nets in the first round. They were the beneficiaries of being in a weak division in a year with six or seven highly intriguing draft prospects, so they won the division by default.
The Brooklyn Nets went all in for the 2013-14 season, but came up way short against Miami in Round 2, and lost their head coach (and perhaps the best player to wear a Nets uniform besides Dr. J), Jason Kidd, when he tried to usurp his own general manager before interviewing for the Milwaukee Bucks’ head coaching job when the position was still filled. Now Kevin Garnett is a year older, and Paul Pierce has taken his talents to the nation’s capital. What a mess
The New York Knicks are the New York Knicks, and not even Phil Jackson can change that. They’re going to keep trying to do their thing, and they’re going to hold out hope that the bright lights of New York and the mystique of Madison Square Garden and the star power of Carmelo Anthony will be enough to lure Kevin Durant to them. As always, they’re the Knicks, so they’ll find a way (or multiple ways) to mess that up.
The Philadelphia 76ers are blatantly tanking for a top five pick in the NBA Draft…again. This is their new thing: lose as much as possible, draft a guy who is hurt and won’t be able to play for a year (Nerlens Noel in 2013, Joel Embiid in 2014), lose some more, get another high pick, and repeat the process until the entire roster is loaded with potential. Wake me up when they start trying.
With Coach Stevens, and the assemblage of talent already on the roster, the Celtics have as good a chance as anyone to make the playoffs. Once they’re there, the probably won’t win it all, but they can at least make it interesting. In Adam Silver’s NBA, the playoffs have already become less formulaic than they were for 30 years under David Stern, and maybe, just maybe, anything is possible. ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We’ll just have to wait and see what that anything will be.
Well, so much for paying Jon Lester. So much for extending John Lackey. So much for Jonny Gomes getting a chance to break the record for most pinch hit home runs in a Red Sox uniform, a record set by the great Ted Williams. We’re having a fire!!!! …sale. This is not what I expected less than a year removed from the Red Sox winning the World Series, but I’m working my way through the stages of grief as the Red Sox attempts to rise from the ashes of this fire sale.
When I first started writing this article, only the news items about the Jon Lester (along with Jonny Gomes) to the Oakland Athletics and John Lackey to the St. Louis Cardinals trades had broken, but that wasn’t all. Relief pitcher Andrew Miller and shortstop Stephen Drew within the division, with Miller being dealt to the 1st place Baltimore Orioles for minor and Drew going to the New York Yankees, who will be in Boston to face the Red Sox this weekend. In addition, starting pitcher Jake Peavy was dealt to the San Francisco Giants last weekend, and former starting pitcher (recently demoted to the bullpen, much to his dismay) Felix Doubront was sent to the Chicago Cubs earlier this week. That’s seven players who contributed to the team that won the World Series ten months ago, including the pitchers who earned all four World Series wins (Lester won two games, Lackey and Doubront each won one). Lackey, Lester, Gomes, Peavy, and Miller are joining teams that will be playing in October in all likelihood, and while the Yankees are having their struggles this year, Drew is joining a team that will have a vacancy at the shortstop position to fill this winter for the first time in nearly 20 years, so it’s a good place for him to be. I thought the Red Sox would be making trades this summer, but I am pleasantly surprised by the return they got on the players they traded away.
In Yoenis Cespedes, the Red Sox acquired an All-Star power hitter, who was batting cleanup on the best team in baseball this season, and who has won the Home Run Derby each of the last two years. Cespedes is part of the major surge of Cuban-born talent we have seen emerge in Major League baseball in the last few years along with Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig, Cincinnati Reds closer Aroldis Chapman, and Chicago White Sox first baseman (and likely 2014 American League Rookie of the Year) Jose Abreu. The biggest issue I had with moving on from Jon Lester (besides deciding that a guy who has proven he can perform at the highest level at Fenway Park, in October) is that the return wouldn’t be worth it. I was afraid of giving away Lester for minor league prospects that would never be successful at the Major League level. Cespedes has proven it. He’s already there. He’s 28 years old, and still hasn’t reached his ceiling. I had no idea A’s GM Billy Beane would give up his team’s biggest power hitting threat in a year when they have a reach chance to win it all, but that’s exactly what he did. For all the books and movies written about Beane over the years, he is still a general manager who has been in the same city for over a decade, yet has never won the World Series. He needs to win it to truly validate his reputation. Other teams have caught up and used the player evaluation practices he made famous in Moneyball, the Red Sox being the most successful example, but he still hasn’t broken through. Beane is hoping a two month rental of Jon Lester can outweigh what Cespedes could bring to the batter’s box in the playoffs.
Oakland can now go into October with a pitching rotation of Lester, Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, and Jeff Samardzija (acquired last month in a trade with the Cubs), which is just about as scary as the rotation the Detroit Tigers have, now that they have acquired David Price from the Tampa Bay Rays and not have the last three American League Cy Young Award winners (Price, Max Scherzer, and Justin Verlander) on their roster. It should make for a great playoffs, even without the Red Sox.
For Lackey, the Red Sox got bespectacled right-handed starting pitcher Joe Kelly and former All-Star outfielder Allen Craig. It’s amazing to see the exchanges of talent that have taken place between the two teams who faced off in the World Series last fall. I was impressed by Kelly in the playoffs last year, and Craig was a major reason why the Cardinals had been able to let Albert Pujols, who is right up there with Stan Musial and Bob Gibson on the list of all time Cardinal greats, walk in free agency and follow his departure with a trip to the NLCS in 2012 (before falling to the eventual champion San Francisco Giants) and a trip to the World Series (before falling to the eventual champion Boston Red Sox). Kelly was off to a great start this season before getting injured, and Craig’s production had taken a dip this season, but the acquisitions of these two players help the Red Sox going forward, adding offense to an outfield that has struggled mightily at the plate this season, and adding a quality starter to a rotation that saw its top two pitchers traded away this week. In my opinion, this is a huge haul for John Lackey, who asked for a trade as soon as the trade rumors for Jon Lester, and who would be playing for only $500,000 in 2015 and if he didn’t get an extension, he might decide to retire. Now, that’s St. Louis’ problem, but their a contender again this year, and they know as well as anyone how good Lackey can be in the playoffs, since they were on the losing end a year ago.
Before the trade deadline, the narrative was one of a wealthy, but overly thrifty baseball club squeezing every dollar out of a franchise southpaw, who they did not think was worth it. I was ready to hammer them if the return was not great enough, and I fully expected it to be. The Sox had made big deals at the deadline in the past under this ownership, but when they traded away Nomar Garciaparra and Manny Ramirez, they got pennies on the dollar in return. In both cases, they were not going to bring the star player back, and in Nomar’s case, they went on to win the World Series, an we were all okay with it.
I heard Mike Felger talking on 98.5 The Sports Hub before the deadline talking about the way fans view the Red Sox compared to the Patriots, and he brought up an interesting point. Whenever the Pats cut bait with a star player (like Wes Welker or Richard Seymour, for instance) fans call into the radio station defending the move and proclaiming their trust in Bill Belichick, and saying that it’s all part of his master plan. When the Red Sox decide to part ways with a guy like Lester, the fans panic and think the team has no idea what they are doing. The thing is, the Red Sox under John Henry and the Patriots under Robert Kraft have been the most successful franchises in their respective sports since buying their teams. After decades of futility, these two 20th Century punchlines have become models for how to win in baseball and football in the 21st Century, and you could argue that the Red Sox have actually been more successful. The Patriots never finished in last place after hiring Belichick, but the Red Sox have been a playoff team more often than not in a sport where it’s much harder to make the playoffs. We’re quick to second guess the Sox because of Bobby Valentine, because of the ten years Roger Clemens pitched after leaving Boston, because the Red Sox ownership will put their team’s logo on anything to sell it, but act like they have the spending power of the Oakland A’s or the Tampa Bay Rays when one of their home grown stars approaches the open market, and because the 86 years without a title began when the Red Sox traded the greatest baseball player of all time to the New York Yankees to finance a Broadway show.
More than anything, baseball is an easier sport to second guess, because I have more hands-on experience playing it as an organized sport (eight years of organized baseball to only one year of organized football), and a lot of people are the same way. Half the fun of watching baseball is trying to play skipper from the living room couch. I didn’t like the idea of dealing away Lester, and I’m still holding out hope that he’ll be back in Boston in 2015, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t impressed by what the Red Sox pulled off this week.
After nearly a year of speculation, the Boston Celtics held onto their picks at #6 and #17 and drafted two adjectives: Marcus Smart of Oklahoma State University and James Young of the University of Kentucky. The Celtics do not have a championship roster yet, but they have more talent than they did last week, and it’s a step in the right direction.
Marcus Smart is a sophomore point guard who could have been the #1 pick in last year’s Draft (though probably not because the Cleveland Cavaliers had the top pick, already had a #1 pick point guard in Kyrie Irving, and botched the pick with Anthony Bennett), but decided to go back to school for another year. The 2014 NBA Draft was much deeper than 2013 was, and Smart was overshadowed by talented freshman prospects like Kansas’ Andrew Wiggins (picked #1 by Cleveland) and Joel Embiid (picked #3 by the Philadelphia 76ers), Duke’s Jabari Parker (picked #2 by the Milwaukee Bucks) Arizona’s Aaron Gordon (picked #4 by the Orlando Magic) and Kentucky’s Julius Randle (picked #7 by the Los Angeles Lakers), but the Celtics did not see a second year of college basketball as a red flag the way other teams do. Nate Silver had an interesting article about drafting sophomores and how the Celtics are smart to do so. Just two years ago, the Celtics drafted a sophomore power forward from Ohio State with injury concerns named Jared Sullinger, and now he’s one of their better players.
Smart makes the questions about Rajon Rondo’s future in Boston all the more glaring. The team is saying they could play together, but I think at some point they’ll have to make a decision one way or the other. The Celtics could do some interesting things with their collection of quick, athletic guards they now have which could create some interesting mismatches with bigger slower teams. I don’t know if we’ll ever see Smart, Young, Rondo, Avery Bradley, and Phil Pressey all out on the floor at the same time, but it would be really entertaining for a few minutes here and there.
In James Young, the Celtics drafted a young player with plenty of upside. He will not turn 19 until August, but he turned a lot of heads in his one season of college basketball, where he helped the Kentucky Wildcats reach the NCAA Championship Game. He’s athletic, a good shooter, and he’s still growing into his body. The Celtics had him ranked as the 11th best player in the Draft, but he was still on the board at #17, so they think it was a steal. The other interesting thing about James Young is that his star teammate Julius Randle was picked by the Lakers at #7. If the Celtics and Lakers ever meet in the Finals again with Young and Randle, that will certainly be an angle that ESPN will talk about until we’re all sick of it. I don’t think we’re all that far off from the next exciting chapter in the Celtics vs. Lakers rivalry being written, and Smart and Young could play a big part in it.
The team is young and getting younger. This is why the Celtics hired Brad Stevens. Drafting college players and trying to determine how good they will be in the NBA is random and nearly impossible to predict unless it’s LeBron, Shaq, or Tim Duncan, but with a former college coach in Stevens, guys like Smart, Young, Phil Pressey, Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk have a better chance of being better players in the NBA. When Stevens was the head coach at Butler University, he was the master of getting the most out of his roster, and made it to two NCAA championship games with inferior recruits than the teams that ultimately won. Smart and Young are better than any of the players Stevens coached at Butler, and I would not be surprised if the C’s make a run at the playoffs with the roster as it’s currently constituted. The Eastern Conference is flat enough that anything is possible… especially if LeBron lands in the West.
While I was listening to the NBA Draft and analysis of the Celtics’ picks on 98.5 The Sports Hub at work the other night, Celtics play-by-play announcer Sean Grande brought up some interesting points. The anticipation among Celtics fans was that this rebuild would be quick. Danny Ainge was able to turn the fortunes of the organization overnight in 2007 when he pulled off the trades for Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett. With rumors trending all over the Internet about Kevin Love getting dealt to Boston, we as fans thought that the summer of 2014 would be more like the summer of 2007, when it’s really more like 2005 or 2006. They’re heading in the right direction, but their assets are not stockpiled quite high enough to light those kinds of fireworks…at least not on Draft Night like the Ray Allen Trade was. Al Jefferson had twice as much NBA experience under his belt as Jared Sullinger when he was the cornerstone of the Kevin Garnett Trade. They not only collected assets, but they took time to develop them before flipping them to form the New Big Three. The Celtics have not created a championship team, but they’ve increased their options.
The picture is slightly more clear than it was before the Draft, but there are still many, many directions this could go. For all I know, the Celtics could pull off a blockbuster trade tomorrow and the team will look completely different, but one thing is for sure about the 2014-15 Celtics season: there will be more to talk about than tanking the season for next year’s equivalent of Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, and Joel Embiid.
“Closing time. Every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end.”
These are the closing lyrics to one of the biggest hits of the 90s. It still gets plenty of play at the end of the night in bars and in high school dances (I’m assuming. High school was a while ago, but things couldn’t have changed that much, right?) or at the end of the day at the office. It’s overplayed, it’s cliche, but it’s familiar, and that’s why it continued to get played. That song came out in 1998. I was born in 1990. With each passing day, it becomes harder and harder to remember a world before “Closing Time.” Semisonic, the Minneapolis based alternative rock band that recorded “Closing Time” is apparently still together, despite not releasing a studio album since 2001, but has faded into obscurity as they could never replicate the success of that one hit. Semisonic’s front man, however, is a different story.
The other day, I happened to hear on the radio that Dan Wilson, Semisonic’s lead singer, lead guitarist, and songwriter, is one of the most successful songwriters and producers in the business. For all I know, this might already be common knowledge. I don’t follow music as much as I would like to. It’s not as easy as it was when I was in high school. In Massachusetts, we used to have WBCN and WFNX on the FM dial. They were two great rock stations that were often the first stations in the country playing new artists that would eventually make it big. With the Internet, we have access to pretty much any and every song that has ever been recorded, but with that much out there, it becomes overwhelming and I usually end up listening to the same stuff I listened to in high school and the new material those artists have released since then. Now, the pop and country stations have taken over, and WBCN’s old studio is occupied by 98.5 The Sports Hub, a sports talk station with the feel of a rock station. It was on The Sports Hub where Toucher and Rich, two holdovers from the WBCN Era, mentioned in passing that “the guy who sings ‘Closing Time'” is really successful as a behind-the-scenes guy these days. Naturally, I felt the need to check Wikipedia, and discovered they were right.
Dan Wilson produced Adele’s album 21, and co-wrote and played piano for the song “Someone Like You.” That song was #1 for five weeks, and has replaced Celine Dion’s “All By Myself” as the song people blast at full volume when they’re sad. He has also collaborated with Taylor Swift, Ben Folds, Rivers Cuomo (front man for Weezer), Carole King, Dixie Chicks, Jason Mraz, LeAnn Rimes, Keith Urban, and KT Tunstall, among many others. Who knew?
Dan Wilson’s music career reminds me of Trent Dilfer’s football career, if Dilfer wasn’t on ESPN all the time. Dilfer was a solid game managing quarterback, but by no means a superstar. He was the starter for the defensively loaded Baltimore Ravens team that won Super Bowl XXXV (the same year as the most recent Semisonic studio album), but never repeated that level of success. He spent the rest of his playing career as a “mentor backup” helping out promising young QBs who were the future of their team. When he’s not on TV, he’s still a quarterback guru who works with some of the best young players in the country. Dan Wilson may not have been able to sustain success as the headlining act, but he’s made a lot of money helping others get there.